Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
Across New Jersey Counties
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
New Jersey:
2010-2022 = 1.06%
2022 = 3.70%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real federal civilian earnings growth across all of New Jersey's 21 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this New Jersey Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real federal civilian earnings growth of New Jersey's 21 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
New Jersey:
2010-2022 = 1.06%
2022 = 3.70%
This figure displays the 21 counties of New Jersey as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real federal civilian earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real federal civilian earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.06%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.06% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.06%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 16 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 5 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 9 counties whose most recent (2022) real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.70%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 12 counties whose real federal civilian earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 21 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.06% over 2010-2022 and 3.70% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.06%) and near-term (3.70%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.06%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the New Jersey average (3.70%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.06%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.70%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.06%) and near-term (3.70%).
   
 
Summary of New Jersey's 21 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.70%)
Above
(3.70%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.06%)
9
7
16
Below
(1.06%)
3
2
5
 
12
9
21
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
New Jersey:
2010-2022 = 1.06%
2022 = 3.70%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the New Jersey counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed New Jersey's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 1.06%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.70%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of New Jersey's 21 counties, 7 (33%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
New Jersey:
2010-2022 = 1.06%
2022 = 3.70%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 9 New Jersey counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 1.06%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 3.70%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 9 (43%) of New Jersey's 21 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
New Jersey:
2010-2022 = 1.06%
2022 = 3.70%
This figure shows the distribution of the 2 New Jersey counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 1.06%), while they outpaced New Jersey's average near-term (2022 = 3.70%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of New Jersey's 21 counties, only 10% (2) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
New Jersey:
2010-2022 = 1.06%
2022 = 3.70%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 3 New Jersey counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 1.06%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.70%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
14% of New Jersey's counties, 3 of 21, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
New Jersey
Real* Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
3
2.74
 
4
6.65
431,897
 
16
1.19
 
2
8.53
275,578
 
5
2.69
 
3
8.01
45,805
 
7
2.01
 
7
5.75
1,369,509
 
4
2.72
 
6
6.19
308,489
 
14
1.26
 
5
6.52
330,065
 
10
1.49
 
8
4.95
223,118
Slipping Counties
 
9
1.58
 
13
3.39
292,402
 
8
1.75
 
17
1.65
566,318
 
6
2.57
 
14
3.11
77,508
 
11
1.40
 
21
-1.92
566,540
 
2
2.84
 
19
1.22
913,950
 
1
3.88
 
15
2.59
478,912
 
12
1.35
 
16
2.24
125,385
 
13
1.30
 
20
0.72
15,800
 
15
1.22
 
12
3.42
177,141
Gaining Counties
 
20
-0.74
 
1
13.42
59,108
 
19
0.64
 
9
4.17
20,715
Lagging Counties
 
17
0.97
 
10
3.69
25,018
 
21
-7.15
 
11
3.49
241,617
 
18
0.93
 
18
1.43
29,974
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.06
 
3.70
6,574,849
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.98
 
3.80
397,841,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620100_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2024. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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